Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
